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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.